| 标普500S&P 500 | 6,369 | -1.67% | 布伦特原油Brent Crude | $112+ | 盘中触及Intraday high |
| 纳斯达克Nasdaq | 20,948 | -2.15% | WTI | ~$105 | 同步升Rising |
| 道琼斯Dow Jones | 45,167 | -1.73% | 密歇根信心UMich Conf. | 53.3 | 3月末Mar end |
| 美债10YUS 10Y | 4.44% | 微升Ticking | 道指状态Dow status | 修正区Correction | 跌破10%Below -10% |
| VIX | 30.85 | +12% | 标普周跌S&P wk loss | -2.1% | 五连周跌Five-wk slide |
| 黄金Gold | $4,542 | +3% | Bitcoin | $66K | 承压Pressured |
- · 标普500收6,369，跌1.67%，创七个月低位 → 五连周跌，2022年以来最长周跌周期
- · 道指跌793点进入技术性修正区间（距高点超10%） → 主要指数全面进入或临近修正
- · Brent盘中触及$112+，WTI约$105 → 外交进展定价全面退出
- · 密歇根消费者信心3月末53.3，低于预期 → 一年期通胀预期升至3.8%
- · VIX收30.85，单日涨12% → 恐慌情绪回归，市场重新为持续战争定价
- · S&P 500 closes at 6,369 (-1.67%), seven-month low → Fifth straight weekly decline, longest since 2022
- · Dow falls 793pts, enters technical correction (>10% from high) → All major indices in or near correction
- · Brent touches $112+ intraday, WTI ~$105 → Diplomatic progress pricing fully exits
- · UMich consumer confidence 53.3 end-March, below forecast → 1yr inflation expectations rise to 3.8%
- · VIX closes at 30.85, +12% on day → Fear gauge back in elevated territory
本周以一个结构性清算收场。标普500周五收跌1.67%至6,369，创七个月新低，连续第五周收跌——这是2022年以来最长的周跌周期。道琼斯下跌793点收45,167，正式进入技术性修正区间。纳指跌2.15%收20,948，距高点已回撤超13%。三大指数本月均下跌约7%。
Brent原油盘中触及112美元以上，WTI约105美元。上周油价短暂回落至$90区间，被市场定价为"外交进展"的证据；本周油价反弹，宣告这个定价逻辑已经撤场。霍尔木兹依然关闭，外交谈判依然停留在文件交换阶段，4月6日打击暂停期截止前，没有任何实质进展。
消费者层面，密歇根大学3月末信心指数读数53.3，低于市场预期，环比下跌5.8%。一年期通胀预期升至3.8%。能源价格正在从统计数据，转化为实际的消费行为改变。
The week ended with a structural reckoning. The S&P 500 fell 1.67% to 6,369 on Friday -- a seven-month low -- posting its fifth consecutive weekly decline, the longest losing run since 2022. The Dow shed 793 points to 45,167, entering technical correction territory. The Nasdaq dropped 2.15% to 20,948, now more than 13% below its October high. All three major indices are down approximately 7% for the month of March.
Brent crude touched $112 intraday, WTI reached ~$105. The brief dip to the $90s last week had been priced as evidence of diplomatic progress. This week's rebound in oil prices signals that thesis has fully unwound. Hormuz remains closed. No substantive progress before the April 6 strike-pause deadline.
The University of Michigan end-March confidence reading came in at 53.3, below expectations, down 5.8% from February. One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.8%. Energy prices are migrating from statistical data into actual changes in consumer behaviour.
道指进入修正区间，是本周最重要的技术结构信号。在这之前，道指一直是三大指数中最"抗跌"的。当道指也失守，意味着这轮调整已经扩散到了整个市场的广度层面，而不再局限于科技股或成长股。
黄金周五涨3%收4,542美元，是本周罕见的正向信号。黄金在本轮危机初期曾大幅下跌，本周重新走强，说明资金开始重新寻找"有价值的避险资产"。这是一个结构性信号，而不是简单的情绪摆动。
The Dow entering correction territory is the week's most important structural signal. Until now, the Dow had been the most resilient of the three major indices. When the Dow breaks, the selloff has spread to the full breadth of the market -- beyond tech and growth stocks.
Gold gained 3% Friday to close at $4,542 -- one of the few positive signals of the week. Its recovery signals that capital is beginning to seek quality safe-haven assets again, rather than simply holding cash. That is a structural rotation, not a sentiment swing.
ASX 200周五微跌0.11%收8,516，相对抵抗全球跌势。澳洲的"能源出口受益"结构在短期内提供了一定缓冲，但这种缓冲正在被消费信心崩溃和通胀上升所侵蚀。美国密歇根信心指数跌至53.3，通胀预期升至3.8%，与澳洲国内正在发生的消费者情绪恶化形成跨国共振。RBA面对的，是一个全球同步发生的消费者信心危机。
The ASX 200 fell just 0.11% to 8,516 Friday -- relative resilience against the global selloff. Australia's energy-exporter structure is providing a near-term buffer, but that buffer is being eroded by collapsing consumer confidence and rising inflation. The US Michigan confidence index at 53.3, with inflation expectations rising to 3.8%, resonates with the consumer sentiment deterioration already underway domestically. The RBA faces a globally synchronised consumer confidence crisis.
中国沪深综指周五小涨0.3%，表面韧性维持。但油价重返$110+区间，意味着输入性通胀再次走高。全球消费者信心数据的普遍恶化，是中国出口需求在未来数月面临下行压力的领先指标。OECD维持中国GDP预测4.4%的前提——能源价格年中回落——随着每一次油价新高，都在变得更加脆弱。
The Shanghai Composite edged up 0.3% Friday, maintaining surface resilience. But oil back above $110 means imported inflation rising again. The broad deterioration in global consumer confidence data is a leading indicator of downward pressure on Chinese export demand. The OECD's assumption underpinning its 4.4% China GDP forecast -- energy prices moderating from mid-2026 -- becomes more fragile with each new oil price high.
现在，正在被写进消费者的行为里。 The war's cost has been written into institutional forecasts.
Now it is being written into consumer behaviour.
市场不会停止波动。
但判断，可以慢一点。 The world won't stop changing.
Markets won't stop reacting.
But judgment can be slower.